Nickel Alloy Price Trend 2026:
C276, 625, 718 & Monel 400 Forecast
Nickel alloy prices in 2026 are driven by a convergence of factors: LME nickel volatility, a molybdenum supply squeeze, geopolitical trade barriers, and surging demand from energy transition projects. Here's what buyers need to know.
Current Prices (April 2026)
| Alloy | Sheet ($/kg) | Bar ($/kg) | Pipe ($/kg) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hastelloy C276 | 42–48 | 38–44 | 55–65 | +18% |
| Inconel 625 | 32–38 | 28–34 | 42–50 | +12% |
| Inconel 718 | 35–42 | 30–38 | 45–55 | +15% |
| Monel 400 | 22–28 | 18–24 | 30–38 | +8% |
| Duplex 2205 | 8–12 | 7–10 | 12–16 | +5% |
Three Key Price Drivers
1. Molybdenum: The C276 Multiplier
C276 contains 15–17% molybdenum — nearly double that of 625 (8–10%). Molybdenum oxide prices surged from $42/kg to $68/kg in Q1 2026, a 62% increase, driven by:
• China export restrictions on rare and minor metals (effective Jan 2026)
• Chilean mine disruptions (Codelco divestment)
• Surge in specialty steel demand from defense and energy sectors
Impact: Every $10/kg increase in molybdenum adds ~$1.5–2.0/kg to C276 production cost. With Mo likely to remain above $60/kg through H2 2026, C276 prices will stay elevated.
2. LME Nickel: Volatile but Range-Bound
| Scenario | LME Ni ($/tonne) | Probability | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 22,000–26,000 | 25% | Indonesia export ban escalation |
| Base | 16,000–20,000 | 55% | Balanced supply/demand |
| Bear | 13,000–16,000 | 20% | Global recession + Chinese demand slump |
Our base case: LME nickel averages $17,500–19,000/tonne for 2026. This supports current alloy pricing but limits further upside unless Indonesia escalates export restrictions.
3. Trade Barriers & Tariffs
The US Section 301 tariffs on Chinese-origin specialty metals (25% effective Feb 2026) have created a two-tier market:
• US buyers pay 25–35% premium over ex-Asia pricing
• European buyers benefit from rerouted supply at competitive rates
• Middle East and ASEAN remain price-competitive
2026 Forecast by Alloy
| Alloy | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C276 Sheet | $44–50 | $46–52 | $42–48 | Up then stabilize |
| 625 Sheet | $33–39 | $35–41 | $32–38 | Modest uptick |
| 718 Bar | $32–40 | $34–42 | $35–43 | Aerospace demand |
| Monel 400 | $23–29 | $22–28 | $21–27 | Slight softening |
Procurement Strategy
For C276 buyers: Lock in Q2 pricing now. Mo supply won't ease until Q4 at earliest. Consider 625 as substitute where process conditions allow.
For 625 buyers: Stable market — no urgency, but avoid Q3 when offshore season demand peaks.
For 718 buyers: Aerospace backlog is growing. Secure long-lead items (forgings, rings) 6+ months ahead.
Disclaimer
Price data is indicative based on publicly available market information and FindSteel's transaction data. Actual prices vary by specification, quantity, and delivery terms. This is not financial advice.
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