Stainless Steel Procurement Strategy: Lock 316L Now, Batch-Buy 304
Bottom Line for Urgent Buyers
Moly at 3-year high · Indonesia nickel tax driving surge
Grade-by-Grade Procurement Advice
| Grade / Form | Action | Why |
|---|---|---|
| URGENT 316L CR | Lock price immediately | Mo at 298K — can't go down short-term. CR still flat = last window before mills adjust up |
| URGENT 316L HR | Already +100 — lock fast | Tsingshan list price adjusted, transmission underway. Every day of delay = higher cost |
| URGENT 316L Mid-bar | Buy now | Single-day +900 CNY. Mill repricing signal is clear and unambiguous |
| BUY 304 CR | Batch-lock price | Nickel driven by Indonesia policy — short-term bullish but already up a lot. Don't chase, don't wait |
| BUY 304 HR | Prioritize spot stock | Tsingshan futures guide price up 800–1000. Spot is relatively safer |
Key Variable: Indonesia Nickel Export Tariff
⚠️ This Is the Dominant Risk Factor Right Now
LME nickel surged to 19,750–19,900. SHFE nickel hit 153,000–155,000 CNY/ton.
The policy is still developing — if officially announced, expect another 3–5% leg up across all 300-series grades.
Advice for urgent buyers: Don't wait for the announcement. Lock at least 50% of your requirement now, and stagger the rest.
Why You Can't Wait for Moly to Drop
🔒 Supply-Side Squeeze Signals
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Q1 net profit +33% YoY — mine owners are making money and have zero incentive to sell cheaper.
Mine reluctance to sell is intensifying. Concentrate supply is tight at 4,720–4,750 CNY/ton-unit.
Tiangong International (4/30 price adjustment): Mo-bearing grades +500 CNY/ton per 1% Mo. This is a direct pass-through of ferromoly cost.
316 Scrap +200 → short-route smelting costs rising → floor support keeps moving up.
316L vs 304: The Price Gap Story
📊 Current Spread: ~13,600–14,000 CNY/ton
The 316–304 gap is historically wide because moly premium is at 3-year highs.
But here's the dynamic: nickel's rally is widening 304's gains faster than 316's. This means 304 is outperforming 316 on a relative basis right now.
For buyers choosing between grades: if moly content isn't critical for your application, 304 is the better value play this week. If you need 316's corrosion resistance, lock now — the moly component won't get cheaper.
72-Hour Action Plan
✅ Day 1 (Today)
Lock 316L mid-bar and HR — these have already repriced and will continue climbing.
Place 50% of 304 requirement at current levels.
✅ Day 2–3
Monitor Indonesia nickel policy announcement. If confirmed → lock remaining 304 immediately.
If no announcement and nickel pulls back → buy remaining 304 on the dip.
For 316L CR: if mills announce a price adjustment (likely +100–200), lock before it takes effect.
When to Hold Off
🛑 Only Wait If:
• Your delivery date is 3+ weeks out (not urgent)
• You're buying 304 and believe Indonesia will walk back the tariff
• You have existing inventory buffer
Do NOT wait if: you have firm orders, delivery within 2 weeks, and no stock on hand. The risk of prices going higher far outweighs saving 100–200 CNY/ton.
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